Many of us struggle with understanding inflation vs deflation. Neville Bennett introduces a new term "BIFLATION" and provides a concept on how best to understand inflation and deflation existing simultaneously.
We are not living in a linear or "black and white" world - must read article.
Aug 23, 2010, Russia's Central Bank Buys Another 500,000 Ounces of Gold in July
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation updates their website on the 20th of each month... and this time it was for July. During that month they increased their gold holdings by a further 500,000 troy ounces, bringing their total holdings to date up to 23.3 million ounces... or 724.7 tonnes. So far this year they have socked away 2.8 million ounces of the stuff... over 10% of their entire holdings in just the last seven months! These guys are serious!!!
Aug 19, 2010, THERE WILL BE NO DOUBLE DIP…..
Great commentary by Egon von Greyerz from Matterhorn Asset Management
No, there will be no double dip. It will be a lot worse. The world economy will soon go into an accelerated and precipitous decline which will make the 2007 to early 2009 downturn seem like a walk in the park. The world financial system has temporarily been on life support by trillions of printed dollars that governments call money. But the effect of this massive money printing is ephemeral since it is not possible to save a world economy built on worthless paper by creating more of the same. Nevertheless, governments will continue to print since this is the only remedy they know. Therefore, we are soon likely to enter a phase of money printing of a magnitude that the world has never experienced. But this will not save the Western World which is likely to go in to a decline lasting at least 20 years but most probably a lot longer.
In its latest investor letter, Matterhorn Asset Management warns of a hyperinflationary depression worse than Japan's, as piles and piles of worthless paper collapse in on themselves.
Who do they blame for this predicament? The Fed, of course.
They back-measure the CPI to 1800, and the point to take away is that while there were inflationary spells in the past, what really got the ball rolling was the creation of The Federal Reserve and the dissolution of the gold standard.
Aug 16, 2010, Next Gold Nugget Webinar is coming up on September 17th 2010
Would you like to learn about the investment opportunities available to you in the most coveted area of wealth generation - Precious Metals and other Alternative Investments?
Join us on Thursday, September 17th at 7 pm CET (at 1pm EST) for a webinar where I will share with you on how normal retail investors like YOU, (with a low entry level investment of 5000 EUR or less) can take advantage of that situation and not only protect your assets, but also to increase your wealth.
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.” – Charles Mackay
The American public thinks they are rugged individualists, who come to conclusions based upon sound reason and a rational thought process. The truth is that the vast majority of Americans act like a herd of cattle or a horde of lemmings. Throughout history there have been many instances of mass delusion. They include the South Sea Company bubble, Mississippi Company bubble, Dutch Tulip bubble, and Salem witch trials. It appears that mass delusion has replaced baseball as the national past-time in America. In the space of the last 15 years the American public have fallen for the three whopper delusions:
Aug 14, 2010, Malaysian state introduces Islamic currency
KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia — A Malaysian state is allowing people to use gold and silver coins at stores and restaurants to revive a practice from early Islamic societies, an official said Friday.
The gold dinar and silver dirham coins provide an alternative to Malaysia's currency, the ringgit, in northeastern Kelantan state, which is governed by the Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party, a conservative opposition group that promotes religious policies in its rule.
The gold dinar was the official currency of Muslim societies for centuries. The value of the coins used in Kelantan can fluctuate according to market prices, but officials say it remains a better alternative to currency affected by the U.S. dollar and other foreign currency.
Kelantan authorities also say the use of such coins is encouraged in the Quran.
The coins came into circulation Thursday and can be purchased at various locations in Kelantan. Their worth is currently about $180 per dinar and $4 per dirham.
"Now that almost every Wall Street economist is looking for the arrival of a Great Deflation, we think investors should begin looking the other way. Keep an eye out for inflation, we say.
You will recall that during the bottom of the previous bear-market, most of the pundits were shunning 'risky assets' (stocks and commodities) and they were advocating a heavy exposure to cash and fixed income assets. Back then, the vast majority of strategists and their devotees were erroneously fretting about deflation. According to these folks, deflation was a done deal due to the following reasons: ... "
Aug 13, 2010, THE FED IS BACK TO BUYING US TREASURIES AGAIN.....
Will someone who read the official Fed statement yesterday, please indicate where it said Liberty 33 would purchase 30 Year bonds? We will spare you the trouble - it was mentioned exactly nowhere. Which is why it comes as a major surprise (and a major loss of P&L to traders who have the misfortune of trading rates), that in the just released schedule by the New York Fed, the Fed has announced it would also purchase 2040 maturities on August 26 and 30 - yes, that would be the very long end. Gotta love the great coordinate and communication between the various branches of the Fed. And yes, this is what happens when you have central planning. Read on from the link below
You probably haven't heard of capital controls, but they are common around the world. These mechanisms can control the inflows of money into a country or moneyleaving the nation or both.
Jennifer Barry has published a commentary "The Real US Border Fence".
From Louis James, Senior Editor, Casey’s International Speculator:
As Doug Casey said recently, we expect things to come unglued soon. With the ongoing madness in Europe, it seems to me that things are starting to look visibly less well glued already.
In contemplating the possibility of another stock market meltdown, it seems important to me that in spite of the exuberance with which investors rushed back into the market over the last year, the memory of 2008 remains vivid, tempering enthusiasm with caution.
Economist and former banker Alasdair Macleod has published some insightful speculation about the cover story put out by the Bank for International Settlements through the Financial Times about the bank's recent surreptitious gold swaps.
Macleod figures that an honest explanation by the BIS and its accomplices at the European Central Bank might go like this:
"The committee is aware of a general increase in the bullion liabilities of banks in the Euro area and is working with the ECB and relevant European central banks to ease market shortages."
Macleod writes: "The reason we will never get the truth this plainly is that any such admission would be rocket fuel to the gold price, bring on the bankruptcy of the bullion banks and the concomitant collapse of all paper currencies."
For the European central bankers to put so much more gold into the market "when China, Russia, India, and other nations are aggressively accumulating it and the ability of the bullion banks to return swapped or leased gold to its actual owners is one hell of a gamble," Macleod concludes. "We have probably just witnessed the last throw of the dice in the European central banks' attempts to suppress the gold price."
Macleod's analysis is headlined "The Gold Market and the BIS" and you can find it at his Internet site, Finance and Economics, on the link below:
Jul 23, 2010, Inflation vs Deflation - Johann Saiger
Jul 22, 2010, The Russian Central Bank's gold holdings updated for June
... and they showed that they purchased another 200,000 ounces. Their total gold reserves now stand at 22.8 million troy ounces... which is 709.2 tonnes.
So far this year, the RCB has purchased 2.1 million ounces for their reserves... and that's a lot!
Jul 21, 2010, Is Now a Good Time to Buy Gold?
Jeff Clark from SAFEHEAVEN writes:
"While we're convinced gold and gold stocks are destined for much higher levels, buying when prices are low can mean the difference between a double or triple and a ten-bagger... a week in Malibu vs. a week in Milan.
There's no secret formula to buying low, and we aren't holding the right hand of Midas, but there are periods when prices tend to be lower than others. And if those tendencies play out, it can give us the opportunity to snag a high-quality asset at a bargain price.
So, how do you get a bargain price? You cheat.
I think the secret to getting a low-cost basis on all your gold and gold stocks is this: only buy on significant price pullbacks.
And this can be done without trading or using technical analysis."
It’s true that GLD’s assets just passed the $50 billion mark, and that it’s the second largest U.S. ETF. Yes, mints had difficulty filling orders when the Greek crisis broke. And yes, the gold price is up nine years in a row.
But those who look at statistics like these are missing the other side of the equation. I think it’s less about how much money is already invested in gold and more about what’s available to invest. After all, one could be impressed that China, for example, invested $14.6 billion in gold over the past few years – until you realize they have $2.45 trillion sitting in reserves.
So, how much is invested in gold, and how much is available? Read on ....
Jul 18, 2010, This key economic indicator is plunging to new crisis lows
The Baltic Dry, which contrary to what some may claim, actually is one of the best leading indicators on global trade and thus the health of the economy, continues to plunge, and is now below 2000, hitting fresh 14 month lows, at...
Jul 17, 2010, Jim Rogers: Silver is one of the few safe refuges left
Investors should sell bonds and buy commodities like silver and rice as a “refuge” as the world economy may continue having problems, Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings said.
“Bonds are not a good place to invest in,” Rogers said at a conference in Kuala Lumpur today. “You should own commodities because that’s your only refuge” whether it’s silver or rice, said Rogers, who predicted the start of the global commodities rally in 1999.
Gold has gained 8.3 percent this year, leading advances in precious metals, as investors seek haven assets to protect their wealth amid concern the global economic recovery will falter. Still, commodities overall capped their worst quarter in more than a year on investors’ concern that slower growth from China to the U.S. will sap demand.
Jul 15, 2010, “If we were speculators, we might consider selling our gold”
“If we were speculators, we might consider selling our gold,” Bill Bonner writes, in tune with our “deflation now, inflation later” forecast. “But we're not gamblers. We hold gold because it represents real wealth, not because we think it will go up in price.
“We don't really know what direction it is going. But that's why we hold it. We don't know what direction anything is going. The nice thing about gold is that it doesn't matter. Gold doesn't go anywhere. It just sits there.
“If you buy a bond, for example, you have to worry about the credit quality of the issuer. If things get bad enough, he won't be able to pay up. Your bond could be worthless.
“Same for stocks. A stock is a share of a company. If the company goes out of business, your stock certificates (assuming you have them) are only good for decorations.
“Real estate is more reliable. But there are taxes and upkeep to pay.
“Gold is a better way to store wealth. You don't pay property taxes on it. And the roof never leaks.
“Besides, gold is especially valuable when other forms of money lose their appeal. The trend of debt destruction will probably not end soon. And the feds will probably sooner or later follow Paul Krugman's advice to "raise [the Fed's] long-term inflation target, to help convince the private sector that borrowing is a good idea and hoarding cash is a mistake."
“In the meantime, gold may go down in dollar terms. Which will make a good time to buy it.”
Jul 13, 2010, Crisis Awaits World’s Banks as Trillions Come Due
The sovereign debt crisis would seem to create worry enough for European banks, but there is another gathering threat that has not garnered as much notice: the trillions of dollars in short-term borrowing that institutions around the world must repay or roll over in the next two years.
The European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the International Monetary Fund have all recently warned of a looming crunch, especially in Europe, where banks have enough trouble raising money as it is.
Their concern is that banks hungry for refinancing will compete with governments -- which also must roll over huge sums -- for the bond market's favor. As a result, credit for business and consumers could become more costly and scarce, with unpleasant consequences for economic growth. Read more ...
Jul 9, 2010, The BIS 382 tonne Gold Swap - Good or Bad for Gold and Why?
In its 2010 annual report, the Bank of International Settlements said that "gold, which the bank held in connection with gold swap operations, under which the bank exchanges currencies for physical gold," stands at 8,160.1 million in special drawing rights, equivalent to 346 tonnes this year, up from nil in 2009." Apparently this amount has now climbed to 382 tonnes since the report was issued.
What are Swaps and who does them? Read on from the link below ...
Jul 6, 2010, With the US trapped in depression, this really is starting to feel like 1932
The US workforce shrank by 652,000 in June, one of the sharpest contractions ever. The rate of hourly earnings fell 0.1pc. Wages are flirting with deflation.
"The economy is still in the gravitational pull of the Great Recession," said Robert Reich, former USlabour secretary. "All the booster rockets for getting us beyond it are failing."
"Home sales are down. Retail sales are down. Factory orders in May suffered their biggest tumble sinceMarch of last year. So what are we doing about it? Less than nothing," he said.
California is tightening faster than Greece. State workers have seen a 14pc fall in earnings this year dueto forced furloughs. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is cutting pay for 200,000 state workers to theminimum wage of $7.25 an hour to cover his $19bn (£15bn) deficit. Read on ...
Amid all the market doom and gloom, the world’s largest gold fund is quietly celebrating another major milestone: SPDR Gold Shares, an exchange-traded fund backed by physical bullion, has recently surpassed $50 billion in assets.
Driven by concerns over the euro zone sovereign debt crisis and a double-dip recession, investors have plowed $5.4 billion of net cash into the fund during the first five months. At the same time, gold prices have continued to set records - gaining 13.4% so far this year - helping boost the fund’s size.
As of Monday’s close, the fund - boasts total assets under management of $53.3 billion.
The fund – known as GLD because of its ticker symbol – now hoards a total of 1,316.18 metric tons of gold and rivals most of the world’s central banks. If GLD were a central bank, it would rank fifth – just below France and above China.
Gold’s safe-haven trait was in evidence again on Tuesday, as stocks were hammered globally and commodity markets were mostly a sea of red. Gold futures for July delivery eked out a gain of $3.8, or 0.3%, to settle at $1,242 per troy ounce at the Comex division of the Nymex.
Jul 4, 2010, Bob Moriarty: Due for End-of-Empire Do-Over?
Economic rebound? Not with 22% unemployment. Banking reform legislation? Loaded with pork. Bankrupt nations? Rock-solid, lead-pipe cinch. "We need to start all over," says the inimitable Bob Moriarty in this exclusive Gold Report interview. "And in the end, we will." Meanwhile, he's keeping an eye out for the few-and-far-between juniors that manage to get things exactly right.
Here's what CNN Money had to say about China in a larger story about central bank gold purchases around the world:
China is considered a stealth buyer of gold, said Boris Schlossberg, director of currency research at Global Forex Trading. As the world's largest producer of the metal, China often buys gold from its own mines and doesn't report those sales publicly. But in April 2009, China did admit to having added 454 tonnes, or a 76% increase, to its reserves since 2003.
Analysts suspect the country is continuing to buy gold and could in fact, be the world's largest buyer consistently. It simply doesn't reveal it's pro-gold stance proudly, however, because China is also the world's largest holder of U.S. Treasurys.
Announcing an aggressive gold buying spree is not in China's best interest because, for one, it might push gold prices higher. Secondly, it could devalue the U.S. dollar, which would subsequently lessen the worth of the country's portfolio of U.S. government bonds, Schlossberg said.
Jul 3, 2010, Jim Sinclair - an email to his ''Comrades In Golden Arms'' on July 1st:
''There are times when you must ignore the hedgie madness in the marketplace and revert to why we are doing what we are doing.
The deflation being spoken of today is the catalyst for the coming hyperinflation. The fact is it has been so in all historic examples. The flooding of markets with debt has been brought on for different reasons, but the ways and means of hyperinflation has always been the same.
Therefore it is today's financial market deflation talk that is the reason why you should own gold.
This continued downturn in business will find government in a panic, not in austerity when their constituency does the Greek dance of panic as the pain on Main Street becomes intolerable. It will.
Contemplate what each of the following means to you one at a time. Do not try to do them all at once. You do not want to do this as a routine memory exercise as much as a meditation on why you have bought the insurance you have.
-Gold is a currency with no liabilities attached.
-Gold is competition to paper currency.
-Gold is not a commodity.
-Gold is a barometer of fear.
-Gold is a barometer of confidence in Government.
-Gold is insurance.
-Insurance is not something to trade.
-Gold is money when money fails.
-Hyperinflation is a currency event, not an economic event.
-Hyperinflation is a currency event described as a loss of confidence in the currency.
-Gold in your hand eliminates counter-party risk.
-Gold is the high ground when the global tsunami hits.
-Gold removes financial agents between you and your assets.''
Jul 1, 2010, Interview: Jim Rogers on Currencies and Inflation
From an interview with the Hera Research Newsletter on GoldSeek.com:
HRN: Are you saying that the American Consumer Price Index (CPI) published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is a lie?
Jim Rogers: In my opinion, yes, of course it is. Have you looked at it? They’ve changed their accounting several times in the past few decades.
When housing was 20% to 25% of the CPI and housing was going up, they didn’t count it, saying rents weren’t going up, and then when home prices started going down, they counted it.
It’s the same with many things. It’s staggering some of the...
Jul 1, 2010, Gold stock traders should be licking their lips
The next few years offer the possibility of a spectacular traders market but bullion could be a better bet than the big miners.
Traders in small gold stocks should be licking their lips with anticipation at the prospects for the next five years. But, those with a view to capitalizing on the gold price alone should stick to the metal itself.
Speaking on Mineweb.com's Gold Weekly Podcast, Global Resource Investments founder, Rick Rule, says "the volatility we are going to experience in the sector is going to be absolutely spectacular," and as a result trading opportunities are going to abound.
This, he says, will be particularly evident if we have another credit contraction. "The mining business is notoriously capital intensive and if there is no capital these people don't have any business.
"The collapse in equities prices that I think we will see occur on a periodic basis is a function of the market's reaction to occasional credit contraction and will provide spectacular opportunities to those who have the courage to be brave when others are afraid followed by the sense to be afraid and sell when other people become brave again."
Jun 30, 2010, RBS tells clients to prepare for 'monster' money-printing by the Federal Reserve
As recovery starts to stall in the US and Europe with echoes of mid-1931, bond experts are once again dusting off a speech by Ben Bernanke given eight years ago as a freshman governor at the Federal Reserve.
Entitled "Deflation: Making Sure It Doesn’t Happen Here", it is a warfare manual for defeating economic slumps by use of extreme monetary stimulus once interest rates have dropped to zero, and implicitly once governments have spent themselves to near bankruptcy.
The speech is best known for its irreverent one-liner: "The US government has a technology, called a printing press, that allows it to produce as many US dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost."
Jun 25, 2010, For the Last Time, Is Gold in a Bubble?
Gold returned 10 (and as much as 14) times your money in the 1970s bull market, and the Nasdaq advanced over 1,900% during its run. Our current gold price is up about 400% (when measured on a daily basis, not monthly as in the chart).
In fact, the Nasdaq gained 182% in the final year of its peak, and gold surged 80% in four weeks during the blow-off top of January 1980. None of this is happening to our current gold price.
Note to doubters: we've got a long way to go before we start legitimately using the "bubble" word.
Jun 23, 2010, Gold reclaims its currency status as the global system unravels
We already know that the eurozone money markets seized up violently in early May as incipient bank runs spread from Greece to Portugal and Spain, threatening the first big sovereign default of our era.
Jean-ClaudeTrichet, the president of the European Central Bank (EC), talked days later of "the most difficult situation since the Second World War, and perhaps the First".
The ECB’s latest monthly bulletin gives us some startling details. It reveals that the bank’s "systemic risk indicator" surged suddenly to an all-time high on May 7 as measured by EURIBOR derivatives and stress in the EONIA swaps market, exceeding the strains at the height of the Lehman Brothers crisis in September 2008. "The probability of a simultaneous default of two or more euro-area large and complex banking groups rose sharply," it said.
Jun 19, 2010, Russia's Central Bank Purchases 1.1 Million Ounces of Gold in May
Ed Steer writes in his "Gold & Silver Daily":
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation updated on Friday their gold reserves for the month of May, and they show an increase from 21.5 million to 22.6 million ounces in one month. I mentioned in May, when they updated for April, that I was expecting a far bigger number than the 200,000 ounces they reported back then. Well, it finally showed up in May. The 1.1 million ounce purchase is their biggest one month increase, ever. Year-to-date, the Russian Central Bank has added 2.1 million ounces of gold to their reserves.
Jun 18, 2010, Marc Faber: "I Buy Gold, I Don't Know What Else To Buy"
Another fantastic interview from Marc Faber:
"I think that governments have become like a cancer, they have expanded in the financial system...The biggest problem is too much intervention. Whatever the government touches is usually done worse than in the private sector. I think any government intervention has unintended consequences and is negative. Eventually the market will break the intervention and things will blow out...People who tell me about the big deflation in Japan, why don't they spend a day in Tokyo? It's still the most expensive city in the world. At this level I'm not particularly interested in buying anything. I buy gold, I don't know what else to buy."
Jun 17, 2010, Gold ends at record high on weaker stocks, outlook
Gold futures rose to a record Thursday, aided by an ailing stock market, a weaker dollar, and expectations of sluggish growth in the U.S. Gold for August delivery added $18.20, or 1.5%, to $1,248.70 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. That handily supplanted the $1,245.60 closing record on June 8 and marked a departure from gold's rangebound trading since that high mark.
Jun 17, 2010, Gold ends at record high on weaker stocks, outlook
Gold futures rose to a record Thursday, aided by an ailing stock market, a weaker dollar, and expectations of sluggish growth in the U.S. Gold for August delivery added $18.20, or 1.5%, to $1,248.70 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. That handily supplanted the $1,245.60 closing record on June 8 and marked a departure from gold's rangebound trading since that high mark.
Jun 14, 2010, Bernanke Says Gold, Commodities Conflict on Inflation
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said gold prices, which surged to a record yesterday, are sending a different signal on inflation than raw materials.
“Other commodity prices have fallen recently quite severely, including oil prices and food prices,” Bernanke said today in response to a question during testimony to a House Budget Committee hearing. “So gold is out there doing something different from the rest of the commodity group.”
Gold futures for delivery in August fell $15.70, or 1.3 percent, to $1,229.90 an ounce on the Comex in New York today. Yesterday, the metal reached $1,254.50, an all-time high. The price climbed for nine straight years and is up 12 percent in 2010.
Jun 11, 2010, China Inflation Rises to a 19-Month High
Fresh data from China on Friday further cemented the view that the country’s giant economy continued to power ahead in May — though a marked rise in inflation also raised the pressure on Beijing to step up efforts to damp the booming pace of growth.
Friday’s figures, part of a monthly flood of statistics from Beijing, showed consumer prices rose at their fastest rate in 19 months, at a pace of 3.1 percent from a year earlier. Across China, workers are beginning to strike for higher wages, which could cause inflation to rise further.
Industrial production and retail sales also powered along forcefully, figures showed Friday, while data out on Thursday revealed imports and exports both topped analyst expectations by a wide margin. Property prices continued to soar in May.